PICK:SAN DIEGO PADRES (-148)

The Padres have been performing well, and with Vásquez on the mound, they have a solid chance against the struggling Pirates. Additionally, Manny Machado is in a favorable matchup and could contribute significantly to the offense. Backing the Padres on the moneyline is advisable.

PICK:TORONTO BLUE JAYS (-158)

The Blue Jays have a potent offense and with Bassitt's experience, they have the edge over the Athletics. Considering the Athletics' recent form, backing the Blue Jays on the moneyline is a favorable option.

PICK:MILWAUKEE BREWERS +1.5 (-125)

The Brewers have been on a winning streak, and Hall's recent performances have been impressive. Considering the Phillies' recent struggles and the Brewers' momentum, taking the Brewers on the run line (+1.5) offers value.

PICK:TEXAS RANGERS +1.5 (-143)

Despite playing in a tough road environment, the Rangers have the pitching matchup edge and enough lineup pop to keep this within one run—and get paid up at nearly −150.

PICK:MINNESOTA TWINS +1.5 (-183)

Minnesota’s pitching and lineup depth give them a strong chance to lose by no more than one run or win outright, and the market underestimates their true run-line value

PICK:ST LOUIS CARDINALS (-110)

The Cardinals have shifted from slight underdogs to road favorites, indicating strong betting interest. At DraftKings, they are receiving 59% of moneyline bets and 77% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split, suggesting that larger, more respected wagers are backing St. Louis

PICK:PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (-118)

The Phillies have seen line movement from –110 to –120, with 70% of moneyline bets and 75% of moneyline dollars at DraftKings backing them. At Circa, Philadelphia is receiving over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars, showing heavy one-way support from both public and professional bettors.

PICK:UNDER 8 (-115)

Consensus: 62% of bets on the Under • Why: Both San Francisco and Washington rank in the bottom half of the league in runs per game, and Nationals Park’s spacious outfield suppresses extra‐base hits. With middle‐of‐the‐rotation arms on the bump, the true total should land below 7.5.

PICK:UNDER 9.5 (-113)

Lucas Giolito (2.65 ERA) draws an A’s lineup batting just .223/.311/.352 at home this month. With James Kaprielian (3.32 ERA) for Philly also excelling, this park plays smaller than the box score suggests.

PICK:UNDER 8 (-112)

The Reds and Pirates project to a low‐scoring affair: Action Network’s top pick for this game is the Under 7.5, and you’ll get plus-juice at –130 to lock it in

PICK:OVER 8.5 (-110)

Chicago’s offense has been resurgent lately (4.9 RPG over its last 10), and Miami’s bullpen (4.25 ERA, 1.48 WHIP) has blown leads in 5 of its last 8 home games. This tilt features two lineups capable of piling on early, and 58% of bettors are on the Over 8.5.

PICK:UNDER 9 (-107)

A heavy pitching tilt at Fenway: Kodai Senga (1.02 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) toes the rubber for New York, while Hunter Dobbins (3.90 ERA) has been up-and-down for Boston. Both clubs have hit the under in 28 of the Mets’ last 47 games and 23 of the Red Sox’s last 38

PICK:UNDER 7.5 (-121)

Two front-line southpaws on tap (Kris Bubic, 1.66 ERA; Robbie Ray, 3.69 ERA) and strong bullpens at Oracle Park point to a low-scoring affair. Greg Peterson’s model pegs the final around 5–3.

PICK:OVER 10 (-105)

Both Arizona (1st in wRC+, .222 ISO vs. RHP) and Los Angeles (best ISO, .357 wOBA vs. RHP) boast elite offenses, and shaky starts from Brandon Pfaadt (5.63 xERA) and Landon Knack (4.98 xERA) set up for fireworks in Chavez Ravine.

PICK:UNDER 8 (+100)

Both Matthew Liberatore (3.11 ERA, 0.4 HR/9) and Michael Wacha (2.96 ERA) have limited traffic in May, and neither bullpen has been overly taxed. Greg’s model projects a low‐scoring 5–3 final—well under today’s 8.5 line—making the Under the sharp play.

PICK:WASHINGTON NATIONALS (+136)

Just like the Mets pick, this leans on the “road dog in interleague play” edge—since 2016, these teams have produced a 4.6% ROI despite a sub-.500 win rate. The Orioles’ starter Kyle Gibson has struggled to hold his team’s offense, making +130 on the Nats an appealing value play.

PICK:MINNESOTA TWINS +1.5 (-169)

The Twins have won 5 of 6 head-to-head and outscored Baltimore by 27 runs in that span. Minnesota’s rotation (led by Pablo López) has a 3.12 ERA in May, while the O’s staff sits at 4.76 ERA. Backing the Twins outright at plus-money locks in strong value on both the pitching edge and superior lineup balance.

PICK:MILWAUKEE BREWERS (+117)

Logan Henderson’s fly-ball tendencies meet Gavin Williams’ league-worst xERA (5.18) and barrel rate (10%). Even in hitter-friendly Cleveland, the model sees Milwaukee’s lineup regressing positively with runners in scoring position. Taking the Brewers at +135 locks in strong upside on a deep, balanced attack

PICK:TORONTO BLUE JAYS (-152)

Chris Bassitt’s career-best metrics (3.17 xERA, 20.9% K–BB rate, 107 Location+) vastly outperform Ryan Pepiot’s inflated 4.40 xERA. The Jays also hold a bullpen edge (3rd vs. 7th in xFIP), making –142 the sharp side on Toronto’s home diamond

PICK:UNDER 7.5 (+102)

Clay Holmes has posted a 2.47 ERA and 53% ground-ball rate, while Bailey Falter remains a league-average arm. Citi Field’s swirling winds and a model projection of 7.24 total runs point firmly to the Under at –112

PICK:KANSAS CITY ROYALS (+106)

Bobby Witt Jr. has heated up (.414 avg, 2 HR, 5 SB last week) and KC’s Michael Wacha (2–4, 2.98 ERA) is on a roll. Spot-starting Ryan Gusto for Houston struggles with consistency, so the Royals at +100 on the ML is our second lock World Sports Network

PICK:MINNESOTA TWINS (-145)

Why: Pablo López has been dominant, allowing just 8 earned runs over his last 33 IP, while Landen Roupp has given up 15 runs in his past 25 IP and has lost back-to-back starts. Backing López and the Twins on the money line is the sharp side today

PICK:BALTIMORE ORIOLES (-139)

Why: Zach Eflin (2–1, 3.06 ERA) toes the rubber for Baltimore against Tyler Anderson (2–0, 2.70 ERA). The Angels are just 15–23 ATS this year, while the Orioles sit at 14–24 ATS, but Eflin’s consistency and Anaheim’s offensive struggles tilt this one to Baltimore on the money line

PICK:UNDER 8.5 (+102)

Why: Pirates starter Andrew Heaney has seen his strikeout rate fall to 7.7 K/9—the lowest since 2015—while allowing a modest 3.18 ERA and just 0.9 HR/9. On the other side, Braves rookie AJ Smith-Shawver owns a 3.00 ERA through five starts, and Pittsburgh’s lineup ranks last in MLB at just 3.1 runs per game. Greg Peterson’s model pegs the true total at 8.3, making the Under 8.5 the sharp side today

PICK:MILWAUKEE BREWERS +1.5 (-180)

Why: Rays rookie Taj Bradley has struggled, dropping from double-digit K/9 in prior seasons to just 6.6 K/9 this year, with a 4.43 ERA and 4.63 FIP. Brewers’ Tobias Myers has a steadier 3.65 ERA and has limited opponents to one homer over his last 12⅓ IP. Backed by a road offense averaging 5.3 runs per game (5th in MLB), the plus-money Brewers ML at +119 offers strong value.

PICK:OVER 8 (-111)

Why: Neither team has found reliable pitching: the Jays’ Bowden Francis and the Mariners’ rotation have both underperformed, while both offenses boast above-league-average run outputs.

PICK:ST LOUIS CARDINALS (-102)

Cardinals ML (+100): Washington’s bullpen ERA sits at a league-worst 6.94, whereas St. Louis has back-end depth and an offense clicking at home. Over 8.5 Runs (−110): Both starters (Mitchell Parker and Erick Fedde) carry ERAs north of 3.4, and this park/playoff-pace matchup tends to produce extra base traffic.

PICK:MINNESOTA TWINS (-147)

Why: Orioles’ starter Dean Kremer has a 5.73 ERA and is giving up nearly two homers per nine, while Joe Ryan has limited opponents to one run or fewer in four of his last five outings. Minnesota’s offense should outclass Baltimore, and +130 on the −1.5 line offers great value for a likely multi-run win.

PICK:DETROIT TIGERS (-186)

Why: Casey Mize sports a 2.70 ERA and a potent Tigers lineup (5.2 RPG) faces Kyle Freeland, who’s allowed at least three runs in five straight starts. Detroit should dominate both on the mound and at the plate, making −1.5 at −110 an attractive play.

PICK:SEATTLE MARINERS (-136)

Why: The Mariners have owned this matchup, going 5–1 in their last six vs. Oakland and outscoring the A’s by 27 runs. Seattle’s rotation (led by Luis Castillo) has a 3.12 ERA in May, while Oakland’s staff sits at a 4.76 ERA over the same span. Taking Seattle on the run line locks in extra value on their superior pitching and lineup balance

PICK:NEW YORK YANKEES (-102)

Why: Michael King (2.60 xERA, 21.8% K-BB%) has been outstanding since joining San Diego, but Clarke Schmidt’s underlying metrics (3.54 xERA, four-seamer and knuckle-curve above average) and New York’s superior lineup (projected 115 wRC+ vs. 109 wRC+) tilt this matchup to the Yankees. Plus, New York’s bullpen (7th in xFIP, 8th in K-BB%) should outduel San Diego’s relievers.