PICK:UNDER 6 (+100)

Pick write-up: Blackhawks @ Bruins, Under 6 (+100) Puck drop: 1:07 PM ET, TD Garden Bet: Under 6 goals at +100 (a push at exactly 6 returns the stake) Confidence: 7.5, right at the threshold Stake: 5.5 units, per your board The case 1. Chicago can’t score. Chicago is 4-9-0 and has scored two goals or fewer in five straight games. The Boston Globe Hockey-Reference has them at 27 goals for in 13 games, about 2.1 per game. Bedard’s goal was the only one in Thursday’s 4-1 loss at Detroit. 2. Boston defends well and doesn’t take many shots. Boston averages 25.9 shots per game, 31st in the league, and Boston’s defence has allowed the second-fewest goals in the league. That’s about 2.3 against per game (32 in 14). thespread Low shot volume keeps Chicago’s goalie from facing big workloads, which also holds down Boston’s own totals. 3. The totals history lines up. Chicago games are averaging about 5.8 goals (27 for and 48 against in 13 games). Boston games are averaging about 5.9 (50 for and 32 against in 14). With both sitting under 6, a line of 6 at even money has a modest edge.

PICK:UNDER 5.5 (+104)

The Under is the best play on the slate because Anaheim's offense is badly depleted and Philadelphia's games rarely run high. • Anaheim is cold and short-handed. The Ducks have lost five straight, outscored 20-9 in that stretch, managed only 17 shots in their last game, and went 0-for-14 on the power play. Troy Terry, Ryan Poehling and Ian Moore are out, and Pavel Mintyukov went on injured reserve Friday. • Philadelphia plays low-event hockey. Ten of the Flyers' 12 games finished under six goals, and only the 7-0 opening loss to Pittsburgh went above six. • The goalie edge points to a low score. Joseph Woll (.917) is the expected Philadelphia starter against Lukas Dostal (.881). • The market agrees. The total opened with the under at -117 and has moved further toward it, at a 6.0 line at other books. • Schedule spot. A 1 p.m. start is a 10 a.m. body clock for a Pacific team finishing a four-game East Coast trip. Risks: Dostal's .881 can turn a quiet game into a 4-3 final. Philadelphia scored three goals in each of its last three games after failing to reach three in its first nine. Overtime and late empty-net goals can add scoring. Condition: neither starter is confirmed. If it is not Woll against Dostal, drop the play.

PICK:FLORIDA PANTHERS (-107)

. This is only a bet if Colten Ellis starts for Buffalo and Markstrom plays for Florida. Buffalo is priced like a coin flip at home, and a third-string goalie should move it. I couldn’t tell why Ellis is projected, since the Luukkonen and Lyon injury items I found were from last season. If Luukkonen or Lyon starts, pass.

PICK:VANCOUVER CANUCKS +1.5 (-111)

Vancouver is on a back-to-back and playing its third game in four nights. Demko is on injured reserve. However, the Rangers’ -1.5 at -103 already prices a blowout, and an NHL status report from Oct 5 referenced Shesterkin’s absence without details. That puts Garand, not Shesterkin, in the Rangers’ net, and I couldn’t confirm it. I see at best a thin edge, not a bet.