PICK:PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (+110)

Philadelphia Phillies ML +110 Pick: Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline +110 The Phillies are getting plus money here, which gives this play value compared with simply taking the +1.5 run line. At +110, we’re getting a favorable price on Philadelphia to win outright rather than paying a heavy favorite price on the other side. I also prefer the Phillies ML over the total in this matchup because the moneyline gives us a clear path: Philadelphia just needs to win the game. Bet: Phillies ML +110 Confidence: 7/10 Risk level: Medium Final call: Phillies ML +110

PICK:TORONTO BLUE JAYS (+100)

Toronto Blue Jays ML +100 Pick: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline +100 Toronto is being offered at essentially even money, which makes this an attractive price in a matchup where the market has the game relatively close. I prefer the Blue Jays ML +100 over the run line because we don't need Toronto to win by multiple runs. We simply need them to win the game, while getting a plus-money return. The price is the biggest reason I like this play. At +100, we're not paying a premium for the favorite. Bet: Blue Jays ML +100 Confidence: 6.5/10 Risk level: Medium Final call: Toronto Blue Jays ML +100

PICK:HOUSTON ASTROS (+114)

Houston Astros ML +114 Pick: Houston Astros Moneyline +114 Confidence: 7.5/10 — Strong Play I’m taking the Houston Astros ML at +114 as one of my strongest value plays on the board. Houston is getting plus money in a matchup where I believe they have a legitimate chance to win outright. The combination of the +114 price and Hayden Wesneski’s recent pitching form gives the Astros enough value for me to back them rather than lay the price with Tampa Bay. At +114, Houston doesn’t need to dominate — they simply need to win the game often enough to make the underdog price profitable. I also prefer the moneyline over the +1.5 run line because the plus-money payout gives us better value for taking Houston outright.

PICK:LOS ANGELES DODGERS -1.5 (-108)

Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-108) The Dodgers -1.5 is my Best Bet on today’s board. Los Angeles comes into this matchup in excellent form, riding an eight-game winning streak. Tyler Glasnow gets the start for the Dodgers with a strong 3.12 ERA, giving Los Angeles the clear pitching advantage over Miami’s Tyler Phillips. The Dodgers also have the deeper and more dangerous lineup, and I expect their offense to put consistent pressure on Miami throughout the game. At -108, the -1.5 run line offers significantly better value than laying the heavier price on the Dodgers moneyline. The pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-108) Confidence: 7.5/10 — BEST BET

PICK:CHICAGO CUBS (+110)

⚾ Chicago Cubs ML +110 ⭐ Good Play — 7/10 Confidence Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline (+110) The Cubs are getting plus money Monday against the Brewers in a matchup that looks much closer than the moneyline suggests. Chicago sends Matthew Boyd to the mound. Boyd enters at 8-3 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, while Milwaukee counters with Robert Gasser, who is 4-5 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. The starting-pitching matchup gives Chicago a legitimate chance to win this game outright. The Cubs also bring one of the strongest offenses in baseball into this matchup. Chicago leads MLB in runs scored and home runs, and the Cubs have produced a .771 OPS with 201 home runs and 768 runs entering the series. Milwaukee deserves respect—the Brewers are 88-56 and own the best record in the matchup—but the current market is still asking us to take Chicago at plus money. Current books have generally had the Cubs around +105 to +113, with Milwaukee around -117 to -125. That makes our +110 a playable price. This is also an important series for Chicago. The Cubs currently occupy a top Wild Card position, while Milwaukee leads the NL Central. After splitting their previous four-game series, Chicago now gets another opportunity against the division leader.

PICK:TORONTO BLUE JAYS (-196)

⚾ Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-117) ⭐ Best Bet — 8/10 Confidence Pick: Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-117) The Blue Jays are in an excellent spot Monday night against the Athletics, and the biggest reason is the starting-pitching advantage. Toronto sends Dylan Cease to the mound. Cease enters at 10-5 with a 2.25 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 221 strikeouts. He is coming off a dominant outing against Cleveland in which he threw six scoreless innings without allowing a walk. Oakland counters with Jacob Lopez, who enters at 6-4 with a 4.71 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. That's a significant gap compared with Cease, particularly when we're getting Toronto at a reasonable run-line price rather than laying the heavy moneyline. Toronto also enters this game having won four straight before Sunday's loss, and the Blue Jays remain firmly in the AL Wild Card race. The market has Toronto around -210 on the moneyline, while the run line is around -1.5, making our -1.5 (-117) a much better way to attack the favorite than paying close to -200 on the straight moneyline. 🔑 Why I Like It Major starting-pitcher advantage: Cease's 2.25 ERA vs. Lopez's 4.71 ERA. Elite strikeout ability: Cease has 221 strikeouts this season. Toronto is motivated: The Jays are battling for an AL Wild Card position. Better value than the ML: Instead of laying roughly -200 or more, we're getting the run line at -117. Price is playable: We don't need Toronto simply to win—we need them to win by 2+ runs. 🎯 Final Verdict TORONTO BLUE JAYS -1.5 (-117) Confidence: 8/10 ⭐ BEST BET OF THE DAY This is the type of favorite I want: strong starting-pitching advantage + meaningful playoff motivation + a much better price through the run line.