PICK:TORONTO BLUE JAYS (-144)

Toronto Blue Jays ML -144 Pick: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline -144 Confidence: 7.5/10 — Strong Play I’m taking the Toronto Blue Jays ML at -144 as my third and final play. Toronto has the starting-pitching advantage with Dylan Cease, and I believe that gives the Blue Jays the edge in this matchup. At -144, the price is reasonable enough to back Toronto on the moneyline without needing to rely on the run line. I prefer the moneyline over Toronto -1.5 because this is a matchup where I’m looking for Toronto to win, not necessarily win by multiple runs. The goal is to take the stronger side while keeping the required margin to a minimum.

PICK:TEXAS RANGERS (+114)

Texas Rangers ML +114 Pick: Texas Rangers Moneyline +114 Confidence: 8/10 — Best Bet I’m taking the Texas Rangers ML at +114 as my top value play. Texas is getting plus money in a matchup where I believe the game is much closer to a coin flip than the odds suggest. At +114, we only need the Rangers to win a little over 46% of the time to justify the price, giving us a favorable risk-to-reward setup. I prefer the moneyline over the +1.5 run line because the plus-money price gives us enough value to take Texas outright rather than paying a heavy price for the extra run. Final Pick: Texas Rangers ML +114 Confidence: 8/10

PICK:NEW YORK METS (+139)

New York Mets ML +139 The Mets ML +139 is my value play on today's board. New York is getting a very attractive plus-money price despite having Zac Thornton on the mound with a solid 3.53 ERA. The Mets have also been swinging the bat extremely well recently, leading MLB in runs during the first part of September and coming off a sweep of the Marlins. The matchup against Gerrit Cole is not as intimidating as the name suggests. Cole has been vulnerable to the long ball recently, including allowing four home runs in his most recent start against San Diego. That gives the Mets' offense an opportunity to keep this game close and potentially win outright. At +139, I believe the Mets are being priced as too much of an underdog. I don't need New York to dominate—I just need them to win more often than the price implies. The pick: New York Mets ML +139 Confidence: 7/10 — STRONG PLAY

PICK:TEXAS RANGERS (+112)

Texas Rangers ML +112 The Rangers ML +112 is my value play on today’s board. Texas is coming off a rough 9-1 loss to Arizona, but I’m willing to look past Friday’s result rather than chase the Diamondbacks after a blowout. The Rangers still have enough offensive ability to compete in this matchup, and at +112 we’re getting plus-money value instead of paying a premium on Arizona. Kumar Rocker gets the start for Texas against Brandon Pfaadt. Pfaadt has been the better pitcher this season with a 3.53 ERA compared with Rocker’s 4.61, so this is not a matchup where I expect Texas to dominate. However, the price is what makes the Rangers interesting. At +112, I believe the Rangers have enough paths to win this game to justify taking the underdog price. We don't need Texas to be the better team overall—we need them to win often enough for the plus-money price to have value.