PICK:PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (+110)

Philadelphia Phillies ML +110 Pick: Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline +110 The Phillies are getting plus money here, which gives this play value compared with simply taking the +1.5 run line. At +110, we’re getting a favorable price on Philadelphia to win outright rather than paying a heavy favorite price on the other side. I also prefer the Phillies ML over the total in this matchup because the moneyline gives us a clear path: Philadelphia just needs to win the game. Bet: Phillies ML +110 Confidence: 7/10 Risk level: Medium Final call: Phillies ML +110

PICK:TORONTO BLUE JAYS (+100)

Toronto Blue Jays ML +100 Pick: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline +100 Toronto is being offered at essentially even money, which makes this an attractive price in a matchup where the market has the game relatively close. I prefer the Blue Jays ML +100 over the run line because we don't need Toronto to win by multiple runs. We simply need them to win the game, while getting a plus-money return. The price is the biggest reason I like this play. At +100, we're not paying a premium for the favorite. Bet: Blue Jays ML +100 Confidence: 6.5/10 Risk level: Medium Final call: Toronto Blue Jays ML +100

PICK:HOUSTON ASTROS (+114)

Houston Astros ML +114 Pick: Houston Astros Moneyline +114 Confidence: 7.5/10 — Strong Play I’m taking the Houston Astros ML at +114 as one of my strongest value plays on the board. Houston is getting plus money in a matchup where I believe they have a legitimate chance to win outright. The combination of the +114 price and Hayden Wesneski’s recent pitching form gives the Astros enough value for me to back them rather than lay the price with Tampa Bay. At +114, Houston doesn’t need to dominate — they simply need to win the game often enough to make the underdog price profitable. I also prefer the moneyline over the +1.5 run line because the plus-money payout gives us better value for taking Houston outright.