PICK:UNDER 3 (-117)

For this UEFA Champions League group-stage clash between Monaco and Juventus, I’m backing Under 3 Goals with a strong 8/10 stake, and there’s a lot of context — from historical trends to current form, team news and recent scoring patterns — that points toward a tighter, lower-scoring game rather than an open shootout. Starting with the head-to-head background, Monaco and Juventus have met a handful of times in European competition over the years, and those confrontations have tended to be compact and controlled affairs rather than high-scoring thrillers. Juventus hold the upper hand overall, with more wins than Monaco in their historical matchups, but many of those games finished with one or two goals rather than a flop of finishes — and Monaco have only managed a win once in that sample. That pattern of narrow margins suggests this tie won’t necessarily explode into a goalfest. Looking at recent club form, the goal-scoring trends are subtle but telling. Monaco’s matches this season often produce goals, but their overall average is closer to a moderate output — around 1.33 goals for and 2.33 conceded per game in recent fixtures across competitions — and many of their matches see teams trade control before opportunities dry up late on. Their attack is active, but not devastating enough to guarantee multiple goals every match, especially when the opposition is solidly organised. Juventus, meanwhile, have been more consistent in finding the net, especially recently in both Serie A and the Champions League. In several of their latest matches they’ve averaged around 2+ goals per game, but it’s important to note that Juventus also defend in tight blocks against quality opponents and often frustrate high-pressing teams by controlling tempo rather than running up the scoreline. Their European results recently include multiple wins with solid defensive shape and a number of matches that stayed at or under three total goals. When you combine both teams’ tendencies, the pattern points toward goals being present but not abundant. Statistical breakdowns show that Monaco’s matches often go over smaller lines like 1.5, but over 2.5 goals isn’t hit in all fixtures, and Juventus away games in the Champions League have frequently stayed under higher totals — illustrating that when they face structured opposition, they’re capable of limiting spaces and turning games into tactical battles. Squad context also feeds into the projection of a tighter game. Neither side is at full attacking power with explosive scoring options guaranteed to dominate every minute. Juventus have been rotating key attacking players and balancing their lineup to manage fitness across domestic and European schedules, which naturally reduces the likelihood of a big scoring spree every match. Monaco, for their part, have been solid at home but not unbreakable — able to score but also prone to letting good chances go wasted against well-organised defences. Tactically, this matchup is likely to start cautiously. Juventus have goals in them, but they also know that slipping at this stage can jeopardise their place in the next round — so they’re not going to throw the doors open early. Monaco, playing at home, will push to get on the scoresheet, but they’re equally aware that conceding early against a disciplined Italian side invites pressure that’s hard to soak up. All of these factors — historical head-to-head trends, the way both sides are scoring and conceding goals this season, squad balance and match stakes — suggest that while goals are definitely possible, they’re more likely to stay under three rather than escalate beyond that line. Defensive discipline, tactical structure and mutual respect in the early phases mean this has a high chance of settling into a controlled, lower-scoring affair. That’s why Under 3 Goals is the angle here with confidence, and why I’m comfortable backing it at 8/10 — it aligns with the reality of how these teams play and how this type of match traditionally unfolds.