CLEVELAND GUARDIANS  VS.
TAMPA BAY RAYS

PICK:TAMPA BAY RAYS (-137)

RISK: 11 UNITS

Confidence: 75% Analysis: Gavin Williams (CLE) has an xERA of 4.36 (32nd percentile) compared to his 3.26 ERA, suggesting potential for regression, and an alarmingly high walk rate (6th percentile). He struggles notably against right-handed batters (allowing a .283 AVG and .438 SLG). Ian Seymour (TB) boasts an elite xERA of 2.73, excellent control (80th percentile K%, 72nd percentile BB%), and strong splits against left-handed hitters. Seymour faces the Cleveland Guardians offense, which ranks last in MLB in team batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, and wOBA. The venue is also hitter-friendly (+20% HR factor), further challenging Williams.